WASDE July 2026: Corn and Wheat Tighten, Soybeans Absorb More Supply, Cotton Stocks Rise

The July WASDE delivered materially tighter U.S. balance sheets for corn and wheat. Soybean production increased, but stronger exports absorbed the additional supply and left ending stocks unchanged. Cotton moved in the opposite direction, with higher production and ending stocks. This report separates the monthly revision from the absolute balance and avoids treating a USDA revision as a standalone trade signal.

Executive summary

The July WASDE is more consequential than the June edition because several major U.S. balance sheets changed in a meaningful way. Corn beginning stocks were reduced, exports were raised, and projected ending stocks fell sharply. Wheat supplies and ending stocks were also lowered, while U.S. production moved to its lowest level since 1970/71.

The soy complex requires more nuance. Soybean production increased because of larger harvested area, but stronger exports absorbed the additional supply and ending stocks remained unchanged. Soybean oil retained its strong biofuel-demand assumptions, while soybean meal demand shifted from domestic use toward exports without changing total use or ending stocks.

Cotton received a clearly looser U.S. revision through higher production and higher ending stocks. U.S. rice moved in the opposite direction and recorded one of the largest tightening revisions in the report.

Key U.S. revisions at a glance

Stocks-to-use figures are calculated from USDA ending stocks divided by total use. They are not separate USDA forecasts and may differ slightly from published ratios because of rounding.

Wheat: a tighter U.S. balance and lower global carryout

U.S. wheat supplies were reduced by 22 million bushels. The production estimate fell by 7 million bushels to 1.536 billion, while beginning stocks were revised 15 million lower. Domestic use and exports were unchanged, so the full supply reduction flowed into ending stocks.

The production structure is important. Winter wheat production was lowered by 39 million bushels to 990 million, largely through reductions in Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter wheat. At the same time, the first survey-based estimates for other spring wheat and durum were incorporated. Total U.S. wheat production is now forecast at its lowest level since 1970/71.

The global balance also tightened. World ending stocks fell from 275.42 to 272.84 million metric tons. Production gains in Russia and Ukraine were not enough to offset lower beginning stocks, lower Canadian production, and stronger global consumption.

Corn: the strongest major U.S. tightening revision

The main corn revision came from the old-crop balance sheet. Feed and residual use for 2025/26 was raised by 150 million bushels after the June 30 Grain Stocks report indicated stronger disappearance. Corn used for ethanol was reduced by 25 million bushels, leaving projected 2026/27 beginning stocks 125 million bushels below the June estimate.

New-crop production was almost unchanged at 16.000 billion bushels. The yield assumption remained at 183.0 bushels per acre. Exports were raised by 50 million bushels to 3.200 billion on expectations of continued global demand strength.

That combination reduced ending stocks by 170 million bushels to 1.790 billion. The calculated stocks-to-use ratio declined from approximately 12.1% to 11.0%.

The world balance also tightened. Global corn ending stocks fell from 281.22 to 275.26 million metric tons. The European Union was a central factor: EU production was reduced by 3.72 million tons, with France affected by record heat and Hungary also revised lower.

Soybeans: more production, but exports absorb the increase

USDA raised soybean production by 40 million bushels to 4.475 billion after the June 30 Acreage report increased harvested area by 700,000 acres. The yield assumption remained unchanged at 53.0 bushels per acre.

Beginning stocks were reduced by 10 million bushels, while exports increased by 30 million to 1.660 billion bushels. As a result, the additional production did not increase ending stocks, which remained at 310 million bushels.

Globally, soybean production increased by 0.4 million metric tons, but ending stocks were reduced by 0.7 million tons to 124.2 million, mainly because of lower Brazilian carryout. China’s imports and crush were revised higher.

Soybean Oil: the demand framework remains intact

The July report did not change the core U.S. soybean oil assumptions. Production remained at 32.59 billion pounds, domestic disappearance at 32.75 billion, biofuel use at 17.8 billion, and exports at only 400 million pounds.

The calculated stocks-to-use ratio remained close to 5.7%. The projected average price stayed at 70 cents per pound.

This means the structural demand story from the May and June reports was neither strengthened nor weakened by July. Soybean oil remains heavily dependent on domestic biofuel consumption, but the July WASDE itself did not provide a new directional catalyst.

Soybean Meal: demand shifts from domestic use to exports

Total soybean meal use and ending stocks did not change. The important revision was inside demand composition. Domestic disappearance was reduced by 300,000 short tons, while exports increased by the same amount to 22.0 million short tons.

This is not a direct tightening of the balance sheet. It does, however, make export demand more important for the meal outlook. The projected average price remained unchanged at $310 per short ton.

Sugar: lower production, but higher imports keep the balance stable

Domestic production was reduced because sugarbeet area fell below the March planting projection. Beet sugar production declined by 118,000 short tons, raw value, while higher cane sugar output in Florida and Louisiana partly offset the reduction.

Imports increased by roughly 319,000 short tons, mainly through higher projected imports from Mexico. The additional imports more than compensated for lower domestic production and lifted ending stocks to 1.697 million STRV.

The July sugar balance also includes historical data corrections to deliveries and inventories reported through the Sweetener Market Data system. These revisions complicate direct comparisons with earlier editions because part of the change reflects corrected historical reporting rather than a fresh shift in market conditions.

Cotton: higher output and a looser U.S. carryout

U.S. cotton production increased by 400,000 bales to 13.7 million. Planted area rose to 9.85 million acres, harvested area to 7.54 million acres, and the national yield estimate increased to 872 pounds per harvested acre.

Because domestic use and exports were unchanged, the entire production increase moved into ending stocks. The U.S. stocks-to-use ratio rose from approximately 26.6% to 29.5%.

World production also increased by 1.22 million bales, while world consumption rose only slightly. Global ending stocks increased marginally to 71.22 million bales.

Notable revision: U.S. rice tightens sharply

Rice is not part of the primary COT-Trader watchlist, but the July revision is too large to ignore. U.S. planted area fell sharply after weak producer prices encouraged alternative crops in the Delta region.

Production was reduced by almost 13% from the June estimate. Higher imports partially offset the loss, but ending stocks still fell by 28% to 30.9 million cwt. USDA raised the all-rice average farm price by $1.40 per cwt.

Livestock and dairy: tighter red meat, looser milk supply

USDA lowered 2026 beef production because of slower steer and heifer slaughter and reduced dressed weights. Pork production was also reduced slightly after the June Hogs and Pigs report showed smaller pig crops and lower expected farrowings. Cattle prices were raised for the third quarter, while hog prices were lowered for the remainder of 2026.

Dairy remained under pressure. Milk production forecasts were raised for both 2026 and 2027 because of larger cow inventories. USDA lowered the 2026 all-milk price forecast to $20.00 per cwt and the 2027 forecast to $19.85.

These markets remain secondary for the current COT-Trader futures focus, but they provide useful context for feed demand, food inflation, and relative agricultural pricing.

Research Dashboard context

The COT-Trader Research Dashboard is currently in preview. Only validated and current data is included in this WASDE report. Additional modules will be integrated as the DataHub develops.

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Trader takeaway

The July WASDE produced a more supportive fundamental revision for corn and wheat, but the quality of the setup differs by market.

• Wheat: Bullish revision through lower U.S. and global ending stocks, but the U.S. absolute carryout is not yet historically scarce.
• Corn: Strongest major tightening revision. Lower beginning stocks and higher exports reduced projected ending stocks by 170 million bushels.
• Soybeans: More production was absorbed by more exports. The balance remains relatively tight but the July revision itself is not strongly directional.
• Soybean Oil: No new revision, but the high biofuel-demand framework remains intact.
• Soybean Meal: Neutral total balance, with demand shifting from domestic use toward exports.
• Sugar: Mixed revision because lower production was offset by higher imports.
• Cotton: Bearish revision through higher production and a 29.5% U.S. stocks-to-use ratio.
• Rice: Strongest percentage tightening in the report, although it is not a primary trading market for this research process.

The most important distinction is between revision impulse and trade execution. WASDE improves or weakens the fundamental backdrop. It does not replace price confirmation, positioning, market structure, or risk management.

Deep dives after this report

Outlook into the August WASDE

• Wheat: Watch final harvest data, quality results, spring-wheat conditions, and export competition from the Black Sea.
• Corn: The 183-bushel yield assumption is now the central risk variable. Weather and pollination conditions will determine whether the tighter balance remains credible.
• Soybeans: Monitor pod-setting weather, export commitments, China demand, and whether the 53-bushel yield assumption is maintained.
• Soybean Oil: Track biofuel policy, actual EIA usage, crush pace, and relative strength inside the soy complex.
• Soybean Meal: Follow export sales and whether weaker domestic disappearance persists.
• Sugar: Separate future market changes from the historical SMD data corrections included in July.
• Cotton: Watch abandonment, Southwest weather, export demand, and whether the higher production estimate survives field conditions.

The key August question is whether weather converts the July corn and wheat tightening revisions into a sustained trend—or whether improved crop prospects restore supply pressure.

Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-673, July 10, 2026.
Calculated metrics: Stocks-to-use ratios and percentage changes were calculated from the published USDA supply-and-use tables. Minor differences may occur because of rounding.
Research principle: Only validated data is included. COT, seasonality, forward-curve, weather, and crop-condition modules are added only when current and production-ready.