Monthly WASDE • Trader Snapshot

WASDE (Feb 10, 2026) — Full Report Trading Bias (WASDE-668)

Focus: What changed vs. last month, why it matters, and a practical directional bias for the key tradable markets (Futures + CFD mapping for Pepperstone / Capital.com).

Headline Bias Board

▶ Wheat: Neutral ▲ Corn: Bullish ▶ Soybeans: Mixed ▼ Rice: Bearish ▼ Cotton: Bearish ▶ Sugar: Mixed ▼ Cattle/Hogs: Bearish ▲ Dairy: Bullish

How to Read This

Bullish = net tighter supply / stronger demand / price support (WASDE logic).
Bearish = looser balance sheet / weaker demand / price headwind.
Mixed = conflicting drivers; wait for price confirmation.

Practical Trading Note

February is often a confirmation month rather than a “shock month”. If the balance-sheet changes are small, price may react first (knee-jerk) and only trend later if flows confirm. Use the grain-complex relative performance chart below to validate the narrative.

Trading Products & Symbol Mapping (Futures + CFDs)

Futures tickers below use the common TradingView continuous format (CBOT:ZC1! etc.). CFD symbols are what you’ll typically find directly in TradingView search for each broker (availability can vary by region/account).

Market	Futures (CME/ICE)	TradingView Futures	Pepperstone (CFD)	Capital.com (CFD)
Wheat	CBOT Wheat `ZW`	`CBOT:ZW1!`	`PEPPERSTONE:WHEAT`	`CAPITALCOM:WHEAT`
Corn	CBOT Corn `ZC`	`CBOT:ZC1!`	`PEPPERSTONE:CORN`	`CAPITALCOM:CORN`
Soybeans	CBOT Soybeans `ZS`	`CBOT:ZS1!`	`PEPPERSTONE:SOYBEANS`	`CAPITALCOM:SOYBEAN`
Soybean Meal	CBOT Meal `ZM`	`CBOT:ZM1!`	— (usually not offered)	`CAPITALCOM:SOYBEANMEAL`
Soybean Oil	CBOT Oil `ZL`	`CBOT:ZL1!`	— (usually not offered)	— (check availability)
Rough Rice	CBOT Rice `ZR`	`CBOT:ZR1!`	—	`CAPITALCOM:RR`
Cotton	ICE Cotton #2 `CT`	`ICEUS:CT1!`	`PEPPERSTONE:COTTON`	`CAPITALCOM:USCOTTON`
Sugar	ICE Sugar #11 `SB`	`ICEUS:SB1!`	`PEPPERSTONE:SUGAR`	`CAPITALCOM:SB`
Live Cattle	CME Live Cattle `LE`	`CME:LE1!`	`PEPPERSTONE:CATTLE`	`CAPITALCOM:LIVECATTLE`
Feeder Cattle	CME Feeder `GF`	`CME:GF1!`	—	`CAPITALCOM:FEEDERCATTLE`
Lean Hogs	CME Hogs `HE`	`CME:HE1!`	—	`CAPITALCOM:LEANHOGS`

Note: Availability can differ by jurisdiction and account settings. If a CFD ticker doesn’t resolve in TradingView, search your broker’s symbol list (some use different naming like “WHEATUSD” etc.).

January vs February — What Changed?

Quick month-over-month comparison for the core balance sheet items (Jan vs Feb columns inside WASDE-668 tables). This section is designed to be repeated every month throughout 2026.

Corn (ZC)

Production (mbu): 17,021 → 17,021 flat
Exports (mbu): 3,200 → 3,300 ▲ +100
Ending Stocks (mbu): 2,227 → 2,127 ▼ −100
Farm Price ($/bu): 4.10 → 4.10 flat

Soybeans (ZS)

Production (mbu): 4,262 → 4,262 flat
Exports (mbu): 1,575 → 1,575 flat
Ending Stocks (mbu): 350 → 350 flat
Farm Price ($/bu): 10.20 → 10.20 flat

Wheat (ZW)

Production (mbu): 1,985 → 1,985 flat
Exports (mbu): 900 → 900 flat
Ending Stocks (mbu): 926 → 931 ▲ +5
Farm Price ($/bu): 4.90 → 4.90 flat

Trader takeaway: February is a “small revision” month — Corn is the clean standout (exports up + ending stocks down), while Soybeans are unchanged and Wheat is slightly looser on ending stocks. Use confirmation via price/relative strength rather than trading headlines.

Post-WASDE Confirmation — Grain Complex Relative Performance

The chart below compares the percentage performance of Corn, Soybeans and Wheat around the February WASDE release. This is the fastest way to validate whether the balance-sheet narrative translates into real flows.

Corn outperformance = tightening confirmed (exports up, stocks down).
Soybeans drifting/lagging = “unchanged WASDE” market waits for South America + demand signals.
Wheat stability = neutral balance sheet; price tends to trade correlation & risk headlines.

Wheat — Neutral ▶

▶ BIAS: Neutral Exports flat Ending stocks +5 mbu Price unchanged

What changed (U.S.)

Ending stocks: 926 → 931 mbu (slightly higher)
Exports: 900 mbu (unchanged)
Domestic use: 1,133 → 1,128 mbu (slightly lower)
Farm price: $4.90/bu (unchanged)

Trading interpretation

February is not adding new conviction to Wheat. With exports flat and ending stocks slightly higher, Wheat often trades off complex correlation (Corn) and risk headlines rather than WASDE itself. Prefer price confirmation (break/hold) over “report guessing”.

Trading Products: CBOT:ZW1! • PEPPERSTONE:WHEAT • CAPITALCOM:WHEAT

Corn — Bullish ▲

▲ BIAS: Bullish Exports +100 mbu Ending stocks −100 mbu Price unchanged

What changed (U.S.)

Production: 17,021 mbu (unchanged)
Exports: 3,200 → 3,300 mbu
Ending stocks: 2,227 → 2,127 mbu
Farm price: $4.10/bu (unchanged)

Trading interpretation

This is a clean “tightening” revision: higher exports + lower ending stocks.
Don’t chase the first candle — best entries often come from reclaim/continuation after the initial spike.
Risk control idea: invalidation below the WASDE-day low or ~1×ATR below the trigger.

Trading Products: CBOT:ZC1! • PEPPERSTONE:CORN • CAPITALCOM:CORN

Soybeans — Mixed ▶

▶ BIAS: Mixed No revision vs Jan Wait for confirmation

What changed (U.S.)

Production: 4,262 mbu (unchanged)
Exports: 1,575 mbu (unchanged)
Ending stocks: 350 mbu (unchanged)
Farm price: $10.20/bu (unchanged)

Trading interpretation

When WASDE is “unchanged”, Soybeans often trade more off South America weather/harvest, export pace, and meal/oil dynamics. In that environment, the higher-quality trade is frequently relative-value inside the grain complex (e.g., Corn strength vs Beans).

Trading Products: CBOT:ZS1! • PEPPERSTONE:SOYBEANS • CAPITALCOM:SOYBEAN
Optional: CBOT:ZM1! / CAPITALCOM:SOYBEANMEAL

Rice — Bearish ▼

What changed (U.S.)

Imports: 48.7 → 47.7 million cwt (−1.0)
Exports: 89.0 → 87.0 million cwt (−2.0)
Ending stocks: 49.3 → 50.3 million cwt (+1.0)
Farm price: $11.80 → $12.10/cwt (+0.30)

Trading interpretation

Softer exports and higher ending stocks are a balance-sheet headwind. Rice can be thinner/liquidity-sensitive — treat it as a “planning market” unless you have a clear technical trigger.

Trading Products: CBOT:ZR1! • CAPITALCOM:RR (Pepperstone typically n/a)

Cotton — Bearish ▼

What changed (U.S.)

Exports (million bales): 12.20 → 12.00 (−0.20)
Ending stocks (million bales): 4.20 → 4.40 (+0.20)
Upland farm price: 61.0 → 60.0 cents/lb (−1)
Production: 13.92 million bales (unchanged)

Trading interpretation

A classic “demand softness” revision: exports trimmed, stocks rise, price forecast slips. Cotton can trend hard — avoid chasing the first move and respect ATR sizing.

Trading Products: ICEUS:CT1! • PEPPERSTONE:COTTON • CAPITALCOM:USCOTTON

Sugar — Mixed ▶

What changed (U.S.)

Production (1,000 STRV): 9,381 → 9,410 (+29)
Imports (1,000 STRV): 2,255 → 2,243 (−12)
Ending stocks (1,000 STRV): 1,922 → 1,940 (+18)
Stocks-to-use: 15.8% → 15.9% (slightly looser)

Trading interpretation

The U.S. balance sheet is still relatively tight, but February is marginally looser (ending stocks up). Sugar is heavily influenced by macro and FX (especially BRL) — treat WASDE as one input, not the whole story.

Trading Products: ICEUS:SB1! • PEPPERSTONE:SUGAR • CAPITALCOM:SB

Livestock & Dairy — Supply Up / Prices Up (Two-Speed)

▼ Livestock BIAS: Bearish

What changed (2026)

Beef production: 25,802 → 25,987 million lbs (higher)
Pork production: 28,229 → 28,289 million lbs (higher)
Total red meat production: 54,198 → 54,444 million lbs (higher)

More supply is generally a headwind unless demand surprises. In practice, cattle/hogs can still trend, but WASDE revisions point to a “supply up” backdrop.

Trading Products: CME:LE1! / PEPPERSTONE:CATTLE / CAPITALCOM:LIVECATTLE
Optional: CME:GF1! / CAPITALCOM:FEEDERCATTLE • CME:HE1! / CAPITALCOM:LEANHOGS

▲ Dairy BIAS: Bullish

What changed (2026 prices)

All Milk price: $18.25 → $18.95/cwt (raised)
Class III: $16.35 → $16.65/cwt (raised)
Class IV: $14.45 → $15.70/cwt (raised)

This is price-supportive for the dairy complex: product prices and class prices revised higher. If you trade dairy proxies, treat this as a constructive macro tailwind.

Day-0 Execution Checklist (WASDE Day)

Expect spikes: reduce size or widen stops if you trade the release window.
Trade confirmation: let the first impulse print, then take continuation/reclaim setups.
Use the complex: Corn vs Beans often gives cleaner relative-value signals than outright.
Re-entry rule: if stopped by volatility, prefer a rule-based trigger (reclaim range / break & hold).